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| https://data.ecb.europa.eu/main-figures | Main figures |
| https://data.ecb.europa.eu/ | ECB Data Portal |
| https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html | Banking Supervision |
| https://www.flickr.com/photos/europeancentralbank/albums/72177720320451018/ | EVENT PHOTOS20 September 2024Ninth ECB Annual Research Conference |
| http://twitter.com/ecb | |
| https://www.linkedin.com/company/european-central-bank | |
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<div class="image-date">16 May 2024</div>
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<a href="/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog20240418~2240ea1850.en.html" class="item image"> <img src="/press/blog/date/2024/html//ecb.blog20240418~2240ea1850/ecb.blog20240418~2240ea1850.jpg" width="357" height="179" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:cover">
<div class="image-caption">THE ECB BLOG - Improved data: how climate change impacts banks</div>
<div class="image-date">18 April 2024</div>
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<div class="image-caption">First progress report on the preparation phase of a digital euro</div>
<div class="image-date">24 June 2024</div>
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<h2>Unlocking capital for a green future</h2>
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<p>Complacency in fighting climate change and preserving biodiversity is endangering our economic survival, writes President Christine Lagarde. The longer we wait, the higher the costs will be. COP29 must close the gap between the commitments made and the investment needed.</p>
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<span class="date">15 November 2024</span>
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A cyclical recovery in productivity <br></h3>
<p>The current balance of risks suggests that we can and should go further in reducing policy restriction, says Executive Board member Piero Cipollone at the Centre for European Reform’s annual economic conference. The pace and extent of rate cuts will depend on the incoming data.</p>
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<span class="date">14 November 2024</span>
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Reassessing monetary policy tools <br></h3>
<p>In a volatile macroeconomic environment, central banks need to be more agile, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. They should prioritise policy instruments that can be adjusted swiftly when circumstances change rather than tying their hands.</p>
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<dt isodate="2024-11-16"><div class="date">16 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="title"><a href="/press/key/date/2024/html/ecb.sp241116~14514573a6.en.html">Reassessing monetary policy tools in a rapidly changing world</a></div><div class="subtitle">Speech by Ms Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Chicago Booth Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability, in London, UK</div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/key/date/2024/html/ecb.sp241116~14514573a6.en.html">
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<dt isodate="2024-11-14"><div class="date">14 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="title"><a href="/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog241114~6a3182c0bd.en.html">Quantitative Tightening: How do shrinking Eurosystem bond holdings affect long-term interest rates?</a></div><div class="subtitle">The Eurosystem has started to reduce its bond holdings. This ECB Blog post investigates how strongly the shrinking balance sheet affects long-term interest rates. Estimates based on the Survey of Monetary Analysts suggest: an expected €1 trillion reduction in bond holdings may raise long-term risk-free interest rates by about 35 bps.</div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/yldz-akkaya.en.html">Yıldız Akkaya</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/john-hutchinson.en.html">John Hutchinson</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog241114~6a3182c0bd.en.html">
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<span class="ecb-full">Svenska</span><span class="ecb-short">SV</span></a></div></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-10-24"><div class="date">24 October 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="title"><a href="/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog20241024~a31e84aa61.en.html">Cross-border deposits: growing trust in the euro area</a></div><div class="subtitle">People have tended to be quite hesitant to trust banks abroad. That seems to be changing. The ECB Blog shows that cross-border bank deposits of private households have picked up recently.</div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/matthias-rumpf.en.html">Matthias Rumpf</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog20241024~a31e84aa61.en.html">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-10-09"><div class="date">9 October 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="title"><a href="/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog241009~0cec85fd2c.en.html">Critical inputs from China: how vulnerable are European firms to supply shortages?</a></div><div class="subtitle">China has been an important and reliable supplier of critical inputs for European industries for decades. But how vulnerable would our companies be if that suddenly stopped? The ECB Blog estimates the potential losses in value added for manufacturers in five countries.</div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/dennis-essers.en.html">Dennis Essers</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/laura-lebastard.en.html">Laura Lebastard</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michele-mancini.en.html">Michele Mancini</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ludovic-panon.en.html">Ludovic Panon</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/jacopo-timini.en.html">Jacopo Timini</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/blog/date/2024/html/ecb.blog241009~0cec85fd2c.en.html">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E50</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General<br><strong>F13</strong> : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations<br><strong>F43</strong> : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd> </dl>
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<dt isodate="2024-11-15"><div class="date">15 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">LETTERS TO MEPS</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/other/ecb.mepletter241115_Zijlstra~344bb2c155.en.pdf?473b5d69c44caeaffbae78e95d68a60d">Letter from the ECB President to Mr Auke Zijlstra, MEP, on the digital euro</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/other/ecb.mepletter241115_Zijlstra~344bb2c155.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-14"><div class="date">14 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">LEGAL ACT</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_gui_2024_37.en.pdf?bd579990e66a7e6ab6973080664906e0">Guideline ECB_2024_37 repealing Guideline ECB_2024_23 and amending Guideline ECB_2014_60 (Gen_Doc)</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_gui_2024_37.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-14"><div class="date">14 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">LEGAL ACT</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_gui_2024_36.en.pdf?835a920e7da23b6b9e4911e53967eca4">Guideline ECB_2024_36 amending Guideline ECB_2024_22 on the management of collateral in Eurosystem credit operations</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_gui_2024_36.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-14"><div class="date">14 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3001</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3001~2650b4b003.en.pdf?10f15586e9ccf06b6ad71338f95814a6">Real effects of credit supply shocks: evidence from Danish banks, firms, and workers</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/christofer-schroeder.en.html">Christofer Schroeder</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/simon-juul-hviid.en.html">Simon Juul Hviid</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3001~2650b4b003.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>Contractions in credit supply can lead firms to reduce their level of employment, yet little is known about how these shocks affect the composition of firms’ employees and outcomes at the worker level. This paper investigates how bank distress affects credit provision and its effects on employment beyond firm-level aggregates. To do so, we use a novel dataset built from administrative and tax records linking all banks, firms, and workers in Denmark. We show that banks that were particularly exposed to the 2008-09 financial crisis cut lending to firms, and firms were unable to fully compensate with financing from alternate sources. The decrease in credit supply led to a drop in firm-level employment, with effects concentrated among firms with low pre-crisis liquidity, and on employment of low-educated and nonmanagerial workers. At the worker level, we find that positive effects on unemployment were driven by effects on low-educated, non-managerial and short-tenured workers. Our estimates suggest that cuts in bank lending can account for at least 5% of the fall in employment of low-educated workers in our sample, and are an important factor behind heterogeneous employment dynamics in times of contractionary credit.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E24</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital<br><strong>E44</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy<br><strong>G01</strong> : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises<br><strong>G21</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages<br><strong>J23</strong> : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-14"><div class="date">14 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3000</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3000~33d4540ff4.en.pdf?8cf4cb94ad950937d58d32074c6f2830">Banks and non-banks stressed: liquidity shocks and the mitigating role of insurance companies</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/matthias-sydow.en.html">Matthias Sydow</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/gabor-fukker.en.html">Gábor Fukker</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/tomasz-dubiel-teleszynski.en.html">Tomasz Dubiel-Teleszynski</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/fabio-franch.en.html">Fabio Franch</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/helmut-gruendl.en.html">Helmut Gründl</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/debora-miccio.en.html">Debora Miccio</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michela-pellegrino.en.html">Michela Pellegrino</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/sebastien-gallet.en.html">Sébastien Gallet</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/stelios-kotronis.en.html">Stelios Kotronis</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/sebastian-schluetter.en.html">Sebastian Schlütter</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/matteo-sottocornola.en.html">Matteo Sottocornola</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3000~33d4540ff4.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This paper documents the extension of the system-wide stress testing framework of the ECB with the insurance sector for a more thorough assessment of risks to financial stability. The special nature of insurers is captured by the modelling of the liability side and its loss absorbing capacity of technical provisions as the main novel feature of the model. Leveraging on highly granular data and information on bilateral exposures, we assess the impact of liquidity and solvency shocks and demonstrate how a combined endogenous reactions of banks, investment funds and insurance companies can further amplify losses in the financial system. The chosen hypothetical scenario and subsequent simulation results show that insurers’ ability to transfer losses to policyholders reduces losses for the entire financial sector. Furthermore, beyond a certain threshold, insurance companies play a crucial role in mitigating both direct and indirect contagion.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>D85</strong> : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Network Formation and Analysis: Theory<br><strong>G01</strong> : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises<br><strong>G21</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages<br><strong>G23</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors<br><strong>L14</strong> : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Transactional Relationships, Contracts and Reputation, Networks<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-14"><div class="date">14 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 360</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op360~35915b25bd.en.pdf?b9e3ff558f75a346731f7edde2d4a816">The impact of central bank digital currency on central bank profitability, risk-taking and capital</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ulrich-bindseil.en.html">Ulrich Bindseil</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/marco-marrazzo.en.html">Marco Marrazzo</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/stephan-sauer.en.html">Stephan Sauer</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op360~35915b25bd.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>As digital payments become increasingly popular, many central banks are looking into the issuance of retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a new central bank monetary liability in addition to banknotes and commercial bank reserves. CBDC will have broadly the same balance sheet and profit implications as the issuance of banknotes. While the decision to issue CBDC is often thought to likely increase the size of central banks’ balance sheets, the net impact of digitalisation on balance sheet size could also be negative, as the number of banknotes in circulation may decline and CBDC’s design features could limit its take-up as a store of value. We use scenario analyses to illustrate the key drivers of the impact of CBDC on central bank profitability, with the part of CBDC that does not derive from an exchange of banknotes being an important factor. The financial risk implications of CBDC for central banks can be managed via well-established frameworks and relate primarily to the impact on balance sheet size and asset composition. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the profit and risk channels affect central bank capital.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E58</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-08"><div class="date">8 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2999</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2999~15454f4a4c.en.pdf?4abd2107f85529df0be2b5ffb108074e">Financial returns, sentiment and market volatility. A dynamic assessment.</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/stefano-borgioli.en.html">Stefano Borgioli</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/giampiero-m-gallo.en.html">Giampiero M. Gallo</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/chiara-ongari.en.html">Chiara Ongari</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2999~15454f4a4c.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>In 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are pivotal in decision-making, particularly for investors. Both positive and negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases significantly shape how people think and act. Measuring mood or sentiment is challenging, but surveys and data collection methods, such as confidence indices and consensus forecasts, offer some solutions. Recently, the availability of web data, including search engine queries and social media activity, has provided high-frequency sentiment measures. For example, the Italian National Statistical Institute’s Social Mood on Economy Index (SMEI) uses Twitter data to assess economic sentiment in Italy. The relationship between SMEI and financial market activity, specifically the FTSE MIB index and its volatility, is examined using a trivariate Vector Autoregressive model, taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C1</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General<br><strong>C32</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes<br><strong>C53</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods<br><strong>G4</strong> : Financial Economics<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-08"><div class="date">8 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2998</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2998~fa7fd2487c.en.pdf?1b7a9aa8df85593fdc0fa7262aaac464">For whom the bill tolls: redistributive consequences of a monetary-fiscal stimulus</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/michal-brzoza-brzezina.en.html">Michał Brzoza-Brzezina</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/marcin-kolasa.en.html">Marcin Kolasa</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/krzysztof-makarski.en.html">Krzysztof Makarski</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/julia-jablonska.en.html">Julia Jabłońska</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2998~fa7fd2487c.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in the euro area sharply increased spending while the European Central Bank eased financing conditions. We use this episode to assess how such a concerted monetary-fiscal stimulus redistributes welfare between various age cohorts. Our assessment involves not only the income side of household balance sheets (mainly direct effects of transfers) but also the more obscure financing side that, to a substantial degree, occurred via indirect effects (with a prominent role of the inflation tax). Using a quantitative life-cycle model, and assuming that the deficit was partly unfunded by future taxes, we document that young households benefited from the stimulus, while middle-aged and older agents mainly paid the bill. Crucially, most welfare redistribution was due to indirect effects related to macroeconomic adjustment that resulted from the stimulus. As a consequence, even though all age cohorts received significant transfers, the welfare of some actually decreased.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E31</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation<br><strong>E51</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers<br><strong>E52</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy<br><strong>H5</strong> : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies<br><strong>J11</strong> : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-08"><div class="date">8 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">LEGAL ACT</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_draft_gui_2025_XX.en.pdf?119e7ef82db66fba9db7c3a16d34143d">Guideline ECB/2025/XX amending Guideline ECB/2017/9 on the exercise of options and discretions available in Union law</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_draft_gui_2025_XX.en.pdf">
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<span class="ecb-full">Svenska</span><span class="ecb-short">SV</span></a></div></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-08"><div class="date">8 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">LEGAL ACT</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_reg_draft_2025_XX.en.pdf?51be82fcd7489de711f45bd2c9e4e2e8">Regulation ECB/2025/XX amending Regulation ECB/2016/4 on the exercise of options and discretions available in union law</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_reg_draft_2025_XX.en.pdf">
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<span class="ecb-full">Svenska</span><span class="ecb-short">SV</span></a></div></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-08"><div class="date">8 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">LEGAL ACT</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_draft_recom_2025_XX.en.pdf?39bf0052848202356a57bb24c7fc7921">Recommendation ECB/2025/XX amending Recommendation ECB/2017/10 on common specifications for the exercise of some options and discretions available in Union law</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/legal/ecb.leg_draft_recom_2025_XX.en.pdf">
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<span class="ecb-full">Svenska</span><span class="ecb-short">SV</span></a></div></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-07"><div class="date">7 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2997</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2997~f4bb724a8d.en.pdf?d413e28657a1302af952818ec82bf55e">Time-varying agglomeration economies and aggregate wage growth</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/clemence-berson.en.html">Clémence Berson</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/pierre-philippe-combes.en.html">Pierre-Philippe Combes</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/laurent-gobillon.en.html">Laurent Gobillon</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/aurelie-sotura.en.html">Aurélie Sotura</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2997~f4bb724a8d.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>We examine how agglomeration economies have influenced labour earnings in France over forty years. First, we define cities dynamically to account for their changing footprints. Our findings show that aggregate wage growth is mainly driven by growth in larger cities, rather than smaller ones or by population shifts across cities. We estimate individual wages incorporating time-varying city and individual fixed effects, and analyse how city characteristics (employment density, area, and market access) and their returns impact wage evolution. Changes in the values of these characteristics have minimal effect, but changes in their returns significantly influence wages, with notable variation across cities. Overall, aggregate wage growth in France reflects larger returns to larger city size. Our model, that incorporate the impact of agglomeration economies on city size and population, suggests that changes in returns do not drive population or area changes sufficiently to impact aggregate labour earnings, supporting our empirical findings.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>R23</strong> : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Regional Migration, Regional Labor Markets, Population, Neighborhood Characteristics<br><strong>J31</strong> : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials<br><strong>J61</strong> : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-07"><div class="date">7 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2996</div><div class="title"><a href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2996~5e4df9c08d.en.pdf?c8c9bf62cfb1904c81c4375c95916841">Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/cristina-checherita-westphal.en.html">Cristina Checherita-Westphal</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/tom-pesso.en.html">Tom Pesso</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2996~5e4df9c08d.en.pdf">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This paper investigates the interplay between discretionary fiscal policy and inflation in the euro area, emphasizing the role of public debt levels in modulating this relationship. It explores how fiscal expansions or contractions influence inflationary pressures, particularly under varying debt conditions. The analysis reveals that fiscal policy’s effect on inflation is non-linear, with debt levels significantly affecting the inflationary outcome of fiscal measures. High debt levels tend to amplify the inflation response to fiscal expansions, a finding that holds under multiple analytical frameworks and robustness checks. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by highlighting the critical role of fiscal policy, especially in high-debt environments, and its implications for inflation dynamics in the euro area.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E31</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation<br><strong>E62</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy<br><strong>H63</strong> : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-07"><div class="date">7 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA</div><div class="title"><a href="/stats/ecb_surveys/safe/html/ecb.safe202411~451cceb0f4.en.html">Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area - Third quarter of 2024</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/stats/ecb_surveys/safe/html/ecb.safe202411~451cceb0f4.en.html">
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<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Annexes</div></div><div class="content-box"><div class="definition-list "><dl><dt isodate="2024-11-07"><div class="date">7 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE</div><div class="title"><a href="/stats/accesstofinancesofenterprises/pdf/questionnaire/ecb.safeq202411.en.pdf?33a8ac1ef60fe13a678b5e4d5fb1491c">Questionnaire</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="pdf" lang="en" href="/stats/accesstofinancesofenterprises/pdf/questionnaire/ecb.safeq202411.en.pdf">
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<span class="ecb-full">Français</span><span class="ecb-short">FR</span></a></div></div></div></dd></dl></div></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-05"><div class="date">5 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 25</div><div class="title"><a href="/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202411_01~98f5aa8d45.en.html">Mapping the maze: a system-wide analysis of commercial real estate exposures and risks</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/pierce-daly.en.html">Pierce Daly</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ellen-ryan.en.html">Ellen Ryan</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/oscar-schwartz-blicke.en.html">Oscar Schwartz Blicke</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202411_01~98f5aa8d45.en.html">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This article analyses the complex linkages between commercial real estate (CRE) markets and the financial system. Examining data from a wide range of sources this article presents the first system-wide mapping of CRE exposures in the euro area. The exercise identifies several sectors – real estate companies, real estate investment funds and real estate investment trusts – with particularly large CRE exposures. Structural vulnerabilities among these key players increase their exposure to CRE market shocks and the likelihood that they could amplify these shocks. In the case of real estate investment funds, highlighting the need to develop a comprehensive macroprudential framework to address liquidity vulnerabilities. Moreover, the complexity of CRE exposures that arise from extensive debt and equity linkages between these key owners of CRE and their financiers adds a further layer of risk, with the potential to exacerbate uncertainty and feedback loops. Findings underline the importance of closely monitoring links between CRE and the financial system and continuing work to close data gaps related to these markets.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>G21</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages<br><strong>G22</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies<br><strong>G23</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors<br><strong>G28</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation<br><strong>R33</strong> : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-11-05"><div class="date">5 November 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS</div><div class="title"><a href="/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.mpbu202411_focus01.en.html">A first look at bank loans to real estate funds</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/marcus-bierich.en.html">Marcus Bierich</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/pierce-daly.en.html">Pierce Daly</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/aoife-horan.en.html">Aoife Horan</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/ellen-ryan.en.html">Ellen Ryan</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/manuela-storz.en.html">Manuela Storz</a></li></ul></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.mpbu202411_focus01.en.html">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This special focus examines the size and characteristics of bank lending to real estate investment funds (REIFs) in the euro area. Overall, bank lending to REIFs is limited in size, with financial stability risks appearing to be contained as a result. However, stress in the REIF sector could still expose banks to losses and could be exacerbated by the riskier nature of this loan portfolio. Finally, high financial leverage in the REIF sector could also pose risks, however, further analysis is required to assess possible risks from pockets of highly leveraged REIFs.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>G21</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages<br><strong>G23</strong> : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors<br><strong>R33</strong> : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-10-31"><div class="date">31 October 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">ECONOMIC BULLETIN</div><div class="title"><a href="/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202407.en.html">Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024</a></div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202407.en.html">
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<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-10-31"><div class="date">31 October 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX</div><div class="title"><a href="/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202407_07~122c943b25.en.html">Decoding revisions in policy rate expectations: insights from the Survey of Monetary Analysts</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/yldz-akkaya.en.html">Yıldız Akkaya</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/boryana-ilieva.en.html">Boryana Ilieva</a></li></ul></div><div class="main-publication">Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024</div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202407_07~122c943b25.en.html">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This box analyses the revisions in policy rate path expectations observed in the Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) and identifies key drivers of these revisions. Amid the interest rate hikes of 2022 and 2023, financial markets and analysts made frequent and sizeable adjustments to their expectations for ECB policy rate levels. SMA participants’ macroeconomic expectations, particularly changes regarding headline inflation and GDP growth, played a significant role in shaping revisions to expectations for deposit facility rate (DFR) levels, especially during the surge in inflation. At the same time, financial market expectations, as reflected in forward rates, accounted for another sizeable share of revisions. Over time, the relative importance of macroeconomic expectations in driving expectations for the policy rate path diminished, with financial market expectations playing a dominant role by 2023.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>E52</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy<br><strong>E44</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy<br><strong>G12</strong> : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-10-31"><div class="date">31 October 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX</div><div class="title"><a href="/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202407_03~33eaa41c76.en.html">The impact of special-purpose entities on euro area cross-border financial linkages</a></div><div class="authors"><ul><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/lorenz-emter.en.html">Lorenz Emter</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/fausto-pastoris.en.html">Fausto Pastoris</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/carmen-picon-aguilar.en.html">Carmen Picón Aguilar</a></li><li><a href="/pub/research/authors/profiles/martin-schmitz.en.html">Martin Schmitz</a></li></ul></div><div class="main-publication">Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024</div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202407_03~33eaa41c76.en.html">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>This box presents newly released data on the activities of special-purpose entities (SPEs) in the external sector of the euro area. It shows that SPEs make a significant contribution to cross-border financial linkages. Overall, SPEs account for around a third of euro area foreign direct investment positions and more than 10% of total euro area cross-border financial linkages. Their importance varies substantially across countries. Although SPEs inflate the gross external positions of the euro area, their impact on the net international investment position is limited. The contribution made by SPEs in the euro area has declined recently from a high level amid national and global initiatives affecting the regulatory and taxation environments for multinational enterprises.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C82</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access<br><strong>F23</strong> : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business<br><strong>F62</strong> : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd><dt isodate="2024-10-31"><div class="date">31 October 2024</div></dt><dd><div class="category">ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX</div><div class="title"><a href="/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202407_02~5ce155d504.en.html">The link between oil prices and the US dollar: evidence and economic implications</a></div><div class="authors"></div><div class="main-publication">Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024</div><div class="ecb-langSelector"><span class="offeredLanguage"><a class="arrow" lang="en" href="/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202407_02~5ce155d504.en.html">
<span class="ecb-full">English</span></a></span></div><div class="accordion"><div class="header" tabindex="0"><div class="title">Details</div></div><div class="content-box"><dl><dt>Abstract</dt><dd>In recent years rising oil prices have often coincided with a strengthening of the US dollar. A positive correlation means that oil imports priced in local currencies become more expensive for oil importers such as the euro area, adding to inflation dynamics. Historically, there has been no systematic co-movement between oil prices and the US dollar. However, recent studies suggest that a positive correlation might have become the new normal since the United States became a significant oil exporter. The empirical models presented in this box show that the structural change in the US oil market has not been sufficient to render the correlation between oil prices and the US dollar systematically positive. Instead, the co-movement observed continues to be largely the result of specific shocks that steer both variables in the same direction rather than the reflection of a structural change in the link between oil prices and the US dollar.</dd><dt>JEL Code</dt><dd><strong>C22</strong> : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes<br><strong>E32</strong> : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles<br><strong>F31</strong> : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange<br></dd></dl></div></div></dd> </dl>
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<h2>Interest rates</h2>
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<td class="stats-table-percentage">3.65 %</td>
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<span class="stats-table-footnote">23 October 2024</span>
<a href="/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html">Past key ECB interest rates</a>
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<h2>Inflation rate</h2>
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stroke-opacity="1" stroke="#4D70B8" transform="translate(-6,0)"></path></g><g><path cs="100,100" d="M0.5,50.5 L5.5,50.5" fill="none" stroke-width="1" stroke-opacity="1" stroke="#4D70B8" transform="translate(-6,0)"></path></g><g><path cs="100,100" d="M0.5,0.5 L5.5,0.5" fill="none" stroke-width="1" stroke-opacity="1" stroke="#4D70B8" transform="translate(-6,0)"></path></g></g></g><g></g><g></g><g></g><g></g><g><g transform="translate(39,0)"><g></g><g></g><g clip-path="url(#AmChartsEl-15)"><path cs="100,100" d="M18.5,40.5 L53.5,60.5 L88.5,60.5 L123.5,40.5 L158.5,50.5 L193.5,40.5 L228.5,81.5 L263.5,131.5 L298.5,101.5 M0,0 L0,0" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke-opacity="1" stroke="#328dd2"></path></g><clipPath id="AmChartsEl-15"><rect x="0" y="0" width="317" height="153" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="0"></rect></clipPath></g></g><g clip-path="url(#AmChartsEl-14)"></g><g><g transform="translate(39,0)"><text y="5" fill="#7F7F7F" font-family="Verdana" font-size="9" opacity="1" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(53,163)"><tspan y="5" x="0">2024</tspan></text><text y="5" fill="#7F7F7F" font-family="Verdana" font-size="9" opacity="1" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(123,163)"><tspan y="5" x="0">May</tspan></text><text y="5" fill="#7F7F7F" font-family="Verdana" font-size="9" opacity="1" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(193,163)"><tspan y="5" x="0">Jul</tspan></text><text y="5" fill="#7F7F7F" font-family="Verdana" font-size="9" opacity="1" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(263,163)"><tspan y="5" x="0">Sep</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(39,0)" visibility="visible"><text y="5" fill="#7F7F7F" font-family="Verdana" font-size="9" opacity="1" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(-12,149)"><tspan y="5" x="0">1.5</tspan></text><text y="5" fill="#7F7F7F" font-family="Verdana" font-size="9" opacity="1" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(-12,99)"><tspan y="5" x="0">2.0</tspan></text><text y="5" fill="#7F7F7F" font-family="Verdana" font-size="9" opacity="1" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(-12,48)"><tspan y="5" x="0">2.5</tspan></text></g></g><g><path cs="100,100" d="M0.5,0.5 L315.5,0.5" fill="none" stroke-width="1" stroke-opacity="1" stroke="#4D70B8" transform="translate(39,151)"></path><path cs="100,100" d="M0.5,0.5 L0.5,151.5" fill="none" stroke-width="1" stroke-opacity="1" stroke="#4D70B8" transform="translate(39,0)" visibility="visible"></path></g><g><g transform="translate(39,0)" visibility="hidden"><path cs="100,100" d="M0.5,0.5 L0.5,0.5 L0.5,151.5" fill="none" stroke-width="1" stroke-opacity="1" stroke="#CC0000" visibility="hidden"></path></g></g><g></g><g><g transform="translate(39,0)"></g></g><g><g></g></g><g></g><g></g><g></g><clipPath id="AmChartsEl-14"><rect x="39" y="0" width="315" height="151" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="0"></rect></clipPath><text y="5" fill="#7F7F7F" font-family="Verdana" font-size="9" opacity="1" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(-12,-2)"><tspan y="5" x="0"> </tspan></text></svg></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="ecb-inflationData cf"><div class="item-container"><div class="item">2.2%<br><span class="ecb-small">August '24</span></div></div><div class="item-container"><div class="item">1.7%<br><span class="ecb-small">September '24</span></div></div><div class="item-container"><div class="item" title="Estimated">2.0%<br><span class="ecb-small">October '24 (Est.)</span></div></div></div>
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<td class="stats-table-icon-rates"><span class="trend up"></span></td>
<td class="stats-table-points">1.0583</td>
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<td class="stats-table-points">164.36</td>
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<td class="stats-table-currency"><a href="/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html">Pound sterling</a></td>
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<td class="stats-table-points">0.83455</td>
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<td class="stats-table-points">0.9389</td>
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<span class="stats-table-footnote">Last update: 15 November 2024</span>
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